Moving beyond good intentions to measure true impact
By Aubrey Jolex | November 23, 2025 | 10 min read
Every year, billions of dollars flow into international development programs. Organizations are driven by a genuine desire to create positive change. Yet a critical question often goes unanswered: Are these programs actually working?
This is where rigorous impact evaluation comes in—and why it matters more than ever.
Development practitioners work hard. But here's the hard truth: activity doesn't equal impact.
10,000 people attended training.
50 schools received textbooks.
100 farmers adopted new
seeds.
Did savings increase?
Did test scores improve?
Did farm income rise?
Without rigorous evaluation, we're operating in the dark. We might be wasting resources on programs that don't work, or worse, cause harm.
A rigorous impact evaluation answers a specific causal question: Did this program cause the observed outcomes?
The gold standard is the Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT). When that's not feasible, Quasi-Experimental Designs (QEDs) like RDD or DID can provide credible evidence.
Don't guess about your impact. We help organizations design and implement rigorous evaluations.
Comparing outcomes over time without a control group ignores external factors (economy, weather).
Comparing volunteers to non-volunteers is biased because volunteers are more motivated.
Underpowered studies fail to detect real effects, leading to false "no impact" conclusions.
Reality: It costs 5-10% of the budget. Is it worth saving 5% to waste the other 95% on a program that doesn't work?
Reality: Humans are biased. We remember successes and forget failures. We need objective data.
Reality: When resources are scarce, a lottery is the fairest way to allocate them.
Rigorous impact evaluation isn't a luxury. It's a moral imperative. We owe it to the people we serve to ensure our programs actually improve their lives.
Get the tools and expertise you need
Aubrey Jolex is the founder of AJ Impact Evaluation Consulting, specializing in rigorous impact evaluation for development programs. With 7+ years of experience at IFPRI and 6+ peer-reviewed publications, Aubrey helps organizations generate credible evidence of program impact.