Why Rigorous Impact Evaluation Matters
Moving beyond good intentions to measure true impact
By Aubrey Jolex | November 23, 2025 | 10 min read
Every year, billions of dollars flow into
international
development programs. Organizations are driven by a genuine desire to create positive change. Yet a
critical question often goes unanswered: Are these programs actually working?
This is where rigorous impact evaluation comes in—and why it matters more than ever.
The Problem: Good Intentions Aren’t Enough
Development practitioners work hard. But here’s the hard truth: activity doesn’t equal
impact.
Activity
10,000 people attended training.
50 schools received textbooks.
100 farmers adopted new
seeds.
Impact?
Did savings increase?
Did test scores improve?
Did farm income rise?
Without rigorous evaluation, we’re operating in the dark. We might be wasting resources on programs
that
don’t work, or worse, cause harm.
What Makes Evaluation “Rigorous”?
A rigorous impact evaluation answers a specific causal question: Did this program cause the
observed outcomes?
The gold standard is the Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT). When that’s not
feasible,
Quasi-Experimental Designs (QEDs) like RDD or DID can provide credible evidence.
Measure What Matters
Don’t guess about your impact. We help organizations design and implement rigorous evaluations.
- RCT and Quasi-Experimental Design
- Power Analysis & Sample Size Calculation
- Data Quality Assurance & Analysis
Common Evaluation Pitfalls
Before-and-After
Comparing outcomes over time without a control group ignores external factors (economy,
weather).
Self-Selection
Comparing volunteers to non-volunteers is biased because volunteers are more motivated.
Small Samples
Underpowered studies fail to detect real effects, leading to false “no impact” conclusions.
Why Rigorous Evaluation Matters
- Learn What Works: Discover the truth about your
program’s effectiveness. - Stop Wasting Money: Cut losses on ineffective
programs
and double down on what works. - Improve Programs: Learn which components drive
impact
and for whom. - Build Credibility: Funders demand evidence.
Rigorous
proof gives you a competitive edge. - Contribute to Knowledge: Help the global
development
community learn.
Common Objections (And Why They’re Wrong)
“Evaluation is too expensive”
Reality: It costs 5-10% of the budget. Is it worth saving 5% to waste the other
95%
on a program that doesn’t work?
“We know it works—we see it every day”
Reality: Humans are biased. We remember successes and forget failures. We need
objective data.
“Randomization is unethical”
Reality: When resources are scarce, a lottery is the fairest way to allocate
them.
Conclusion: Evidence Matters
Rigorous impact evaluation isn’t a luxury. It’s a moral imperative. We owe it to the people we serve
to
ensure our programs actually improve their lives.
Start Your Evaluation Journey
- Think about evaluation from Day One
- Invest in Power Analysis
- Partner with Technical Experts
- Commit to Learning (even from failure)
Ready to Measure Your Impact?
Get the tools and expertise you need
About the Author
Aubrey Jolex is the founder of AJ Impact Evaluation Consulting, specializing in rigorous impact
evaluation for development programs. With 7+ years of experience at IFPRI and 6+ peer-reviewed
publications, Aubrey helps organizations generate credible evidence of program impact.